The math behind trust (it's brutal)
Sep 02, 2025 8:57 am
"Your reputation is built in drops and lost in buckets."
Hey ,
Here's gist you don't here every day...
Andrew Carnegie...
Remember him?
The guy who allegedly jump started the Think And Grow Rich Empire...
Well...
That guy once walked into a meeting and stole John D. Rockefeller's most valuable client.
Err...That's the oil guy from The Men Who Built America documentary
#justsaying
Anyway...
He stole the client...
Not with a lower price.
Not with better steel.
With eight words.
#pausingfordramaticeffect
Here's the inside gist you probably didn't know...
Rockefeller's company had been late on three consecutive deliveries to Pennsylvania Railroad.
Nothing dramatic.
Just a few days here and there.
Carnegie heard about it through a contact at the railroad.
He requested a meeting with the president that same week.
When he sat down, he said:
"Every order will arrive exactly when we say it will."
The railroad president asked about guarantees.
Carnegie replied: "If we're even one day late, I'll personally refund 10% of your invoice."
End of story...
The president switched suppliers before Carnegie left the building.
Now here's what's interesting about this story...
Carnegie didn't win because he had better steel or lower prices.
He won because he understood something most experts never figure out.
Your reputation isn't built by grand gestures.
It's built by small promises kept.
Carnegie called it his "promise account."
Smart guy.
Trust is mathematics not feelings
Most people think trust is emotional.
They're wrong.
Trust is cold, hard mathematics.
Every promise you make is either a deposit or withdrawal from what I call your Reputation account.
The math is brutal:
Small promise kept = Small deposit
Big promise kept = Big deposit
Any promise broken = Massive withdrawal
Here's the part that'll make you wince...
It takes approximately 12 kept promises to recover from one broken promise of equal size.
That phone call you forgot to return?
You need 12 perfect calls to get back to even.
That report you delivered two days late?
12 on time deliveries to repair the damage.
Let that sink in.
Most experts are unknowingly running a reputation deficit and wondering why referrals dried up.
Makes sense when you think about it.
Here's where it gets dangerous.
Most reputation damage doesn't come from obvious broken promises.
It comes from what I call stealth promises...
Commitments you made without realizing it.
Like when you say:
"I'll get back to you soon"
What's soon?
Two hours?
Two days?
"This will be great"
Your definition of great, or theirs?
"We'll handle everything"
Everything means what, exactly?
"I'll keep you updated"
How often?
Through what method?
Every vague commitment is a reputation landmine.
And they're everywhere.
After studying the most trusted advisors for years, I discovered something interesting.
They all use the same basic system.
Four steps..
Step One: Promise inventory
They categorize every commitment.
Public promises:posted deadlines, stated deliverables
Private promises: one on one commitments, personal assurances
Implied promises: professional standards, relationship expectations
Emergency promises: crisis commitments, recovery timelines
Step Two: Precision specification
Vague becomes specific.
Instead of: "I'll send the report soon"
They say: "You'll get the draft Thursday by 3 PM via email, final version Monday morning"
Instead of: "We'll make this right"
They say: "I'll review what went wrong and email you our action plan tomorrow by 5 PM"
See the difference?
Step Three: Promise tracking
Simple system. Spreadsheet, app, notebook, whatever works.
They track:
- Promise made (date and time)
- Commitment details (what, when, how)
- Delivery status (pending, completed, modified)
- Confirmation (verified by recipient)
Step Four: Weekly calculation
They measure this: (Promises Kept รท Promises Made) ร 100
Ok so they don't use this formula exactly...
#rollingmyeyes
But I've found it works for me.
Target: 95% minimum
Below 90%?
Their reputation is hemorrhaging.
CASE STUDY:
I tracked one of my Diamond Master Mind (Now Sovereign Circle) clienys who implemented this religiously.
Month 1: 87% promise-kept ratio (industry average)
Month 3: 96% ratio
Month 6: 40% increase in referrals
Month 12: Premium pricing accepted without pushback
Month 18: Six month waiting list
Same person.
Same expertise.
Different promise architecture.
#sipscoffee
What happens when you break a promise?
Your response determines whether it strengthens or destroys your reputation.
Five step recovery I call R.A.P.I.D Recovery
Recognize and acknowledge what you did before they notice
Accept responsibility, offer zero excuses
Propose solution with a specific action plan and timeline
Implement fast and be sure to over deliver
Document lessons learnt to activate Deliberate Design...
I believe we should get paid for every messup including our own...
A mistake or failure is a terrible thing to waste.
One consultant I know turned a major delivery failure into his strongest client relationship using this approach.
That client now sends three referrals annually.
When your promise keeping becomes legendary...
Four things happen...
You command predictability premium.
Clients pay more for certainty.
You occupy mental real estate.
You become the one who always delivers.
You earn referral confidence.
People trust you won't embarrass them.
You build crisis immunity.
Past reliability creates forgiveness buffer.
Here's something I've learned...
The most trusted advisors make fewer promises, not more.
They've learned promise quality beats promise quantity.
They under promise and over deliver rather than over promise and scramble.
They'd rather say no upfront than break a commitment later.
This selectivity makes their yes more valuable.
Why does this this matters now?
In a world where AI handles information...
Your human promise keeping becomes your edge.
AI can generate insights but can't show up to your daughter's recital.
AI can create content but can't call you back when it promised.
AI can solve problems but can't take personal responsibility.
Your ability to make and keep human promises is your moat against commoditization.
So..
Starting tomorrow...
Track every commitment you make.
Not just client deliverables.
Everything.
Set up your tracking system.
Whatever format works.
Calculate your ratio at week's end.
If it's below 95%...
You found your reputation leak.
Your expertise got you noticed.
Your promises will make you trusted.
And in a world of broken commitments, trust is rare currency.
This is The Certain Way.
So...
Get out of your own way.
CTM
P.S. Tomorrow I'm revealing the Proof Density Formula that turns client interactions into organic marketing. One advisor used it to generate 60% of new business from word-of-mouth while spending nothing on ads. The math will shock you.
PPS:
Next week Thursday, The 11th of September 2025.
Time: 6pm to 9pm WAT
I'll be hosting the Deliberate Design Intensive, a three hour workshop designed to help you implement deliberate design and turn your wisdom, life experience and expertise into cash producing frameworks. It's designed for members of IST but I've got 10 guest passes avalable at $100 or N150,000.
Registration ends this week midnight Thursday 4th, 2025.