Introduction
As Trump descends on China this week, all eyes will be on the world’s most powerful leader for a high-stakes US-China deal.
Considering his growing unpopularity at home---raising inflation, high gas prices and an unpopular Middle Eastern war in Iran---Mr. Trump is desperate for a win.
However, unlike nearly ten years ago when the American president last stepped foot in the Middle Kingdom, China has completely transformed its economy from a manufacturing competitor to a high-tech global innovator that holds more leverage over a superpower seemingly on the decline.
Put simply, the US-China meeting is the first-time in modern history that China will be holding the cards over a once powerful United States.
Donald Trump’s stated mission this week is welcome---opening up China to large US companies and getting the country to make more soybean purchases---may make for newsworthy headlines back home, however, America’s lack of major structural change will lose out to China’s long-term vision and strategy.
Background
November 2017 was the last time an American president, Donald Trump, met China’s leader Xi Jing Ping in China.
Consider in ten year’s time China’s economic and technological progress:
High-tech and green manufacturing: China now dominates the EV industry with once unknown car brands just ten years ago such as BYD, NIO, and Xiao Mi; including battery technology, storage and development. Moreover, China’s decades of investments in solar and wind power and other green technology have paid-off ten-fold, becoming the world's leader.
Expanding global trade: In 2017, China exported a record 400 billion in US goods to the United States while in 2026 that number has dwindled in half to 200 billion US dollars. However, that hasn’t stopped China from trading with Global South countries, increasing its exports to Southeast Asia and Africa as well as the European Union, setting a trillion dollars in exports in 2025.
Geopolitical influence & soft power: As Trump wages a trade war with the rest of the world and offends allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, China’s decade’s-long Belt & Road initiative infrastructure and financial investment in the Global South have pushed the rest of the world into its orbit.
The BRICS countries and the Global South are continuing to find ways to cooperate, invest, and do business with one another, without the US.
Conclusion
In ten years, China has been on an unstoppable ascension---technological, geopolitical, and economically---no matter what hurdles the United States throws at it.
While Trump’s entourage includes Tesla’s Elon Musk, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, and Boeing’s CEO, the United States needs to increase people-to-people and educational engagement and cooperation with China for long-term win-win strategy, rather than opt for "opening China-up” to a handful of companies.
While the United States continues to shoot itself in the foot through tariffs, unnecessary Middle Eastern wars, offending and sidelining its traditional allies, China continues to build upon mutual, beneficial relations with the rest of the world through cooperation---slow and steady like a tortoise---for strength, peace and cooperation.
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