Good morning my dear readers,

2023 has zipped by, June is already ending. Time really flies. Need to enjoy the moment.

(Too heavy for a Friday? 🙂).

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I recently came across some fascinating data points which I wanted to share with you..

1- The below are the historic 'odds' of getting a positive return in the S&P 500 Index by holding duration.

Basically, in over a century worth of data, you had a 90% chance of making money by investing in the S&P 500 index if you held on for 6 years.

*Ofcourse, the above chart doesn't talk about the 'Rate of return', but atleast it is good to know that investors have almost always made money if they have remained invested for the long term in the index.

And if you were to incorporate the great habit of 'Opportunistic SIP', that would strengthen the case for long term investing, even further!.

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2- There's always a reason to sell, but the market keeps going up, in the long run.

Basically, run away from the 'overly intellectual' people, they know too much for their own good.

These overly intellectual people are always a worried lot and keep predicting the next 'Crash'.

#Economists.

Nice graph below..

The grand secret, according to me, the stock market is designed to go up, but in the long run.

(Have you seen a Mountain Goat, 🐐, walk on a cliff? - you think they will fall, but they never do).

It may be the first time that the stock market has been compared to a Mountain Goat, but it's true, and my coffee is absolutely clean too.

I have heard even the great RJ talk about something similar..

"Markets climb a wall of worries" - Mr Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.

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So basically, if you find a decent set of stock ideas which have sufficient margin of safety according to you, then just invest and do NOT get into the game of timing the markets.

Conclusion: The next time you hear from the 'over intellectual types' about the problems for the stock market, just put some salt in their coffee.

(That'll teach them 😈).

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MOST IMPORTANT POINT,

3- You make far more money holding through Bull markets than what you lose in Bear Markets.

Peter Lynch also famously said, "Far more money is lost in waiting for a Bear Market than in an actual Bear Market".

I believe he too was referring to the above point.

And I have seen this too with part time investors, they are always in a rush to book profits.

(Every 10% upmove in their stock or portfolio, it's like an alarm that goes off in their brains that dictates them to sell out, far too early).

One of the key reasons for investors to act irrational is social media and television.

There is just too much cluttler and noise.

In my opinion, investors who are serious about making real money should stop watching TV and take regular breaks from social media.

(Really, if you wish to change the pocket change into a fortune, go off TV and Social media).

Work on coming up with strong ideas and original thinking yourself, isolate yourself and meditate.

(This is what I do for inspiration).

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Conclusion:

Self Control is needed. Patience is needed.

Even a part time investor can simply buy an index ETF and make a decent return if he is calm through cycles.

The key word is to be a 'Cool Cucumber'.

(Channel your inner polar bear in a snowstorm - be the epitome of cool) 😎.

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Ps- If you haven't seen a Mountain Goat walk on a cliff?, Just log onto YouTube and see this.

It will change your outlook on markets 😅.

Enjoy your weekend.

My Best,

Neil Bahal

Chief Mountain Goat

Negen Capital

I'm off to battle the wilds of the spreadsheet jungle.