The idea is to pick strong strong Boats and not predict storms.

Mar 15, 2024 12:46 am

Good morning my dear readers,


My son has a football tournament on Saturday and for some reason, I am more tensed/excited/kicked about it than him.


Any other parent feel the same way? 😊


_______________________________________________________________


Ok, the market has been falling apart.


I am very hopeful that all our collective learning has kept us cool and maintain our calm when others have been panicking.


*First learning that paid off big in this correction, NO LEVERAGED TRADING.


Yes, our investment portfolio is -9% approx in March, but that's faring significantly better than folks who are leveraged and probably wiped out.


It's a golden rule for long term Wealth creation, do NOT leverage.



Without Leverage, portfolio losses remain 'notional'. Leverage is the culprit which converts notional loss into 'permanent loss'.


~~


Second learning,



Buy Damaged stocks, but not damaged companies.


A) Don't try and average just 1-2 stocks in your portfolio which have fallen the most.


(Recipe for disaster in such markets when changes in regulations could potentially change sentiments for certain stocks or sectors).


B) What works for me always is that, in deep corrections, I prefer making a diversified basket and going with the safety of some numbers while bottom fishing.


(Paise Kam banenge, woh chalega, nuksaan nahi karna hai).



C) Also, if I weren't a full time investor, I would not venture out and risk buying stocks which I don't totally understand. Instead, I would consult with my advisor and buy a bunch of ETFs for safety in big numbers.


~~


Most important lesson that we have learnt together...



The idea is to build a Strong BOAT and not be in the business of Predicting Storms.



A) Keep things really simple, TOP DOWN first, identify sectors which we understand best.

(For me, Wealth/Asset management, Renewables, Defence, Special Situations in general).



B) REFUSE to Over-Pay.


C) Diversify.


D) Opportunistic SIP.



*Ps, by STRONG BOAT, I mean a Strong PORTFOLIO!

=)


~~


Unfortunately, the talk, over and over again is... "Market kya karega", 'Bottom kab ayega".


Most are just over hyper, just want to predict the next storm..thats just useless.


Forget all this, just remember what the big investors have always done.


Stay Calm, Sip your coffee, SIP your portfolio.



~~


I know, being a fund manager, I shouldn't really say this as a lot of other FMs could get angry at me...


But no one can truly predict market directions in the short to medium term.

(Not me, not any other market person).


So why waste energy?


Shut off the TV. Cut out the Noise. Do not go on Twitter.


Instead, just use AI, read summaries of Concalls and Interviews.


Keep building your knowledge base.


~~


Investing is largely a game of discipline. Trusting in own judgement. Going against the frenzy (especially in panics).


~~



Conclusion:


Take it easy, mister.


India is doing well. Bulls will be back at some point, take shelter until then, wait for reinforcements to arrive.


Do not get carried away by unnecessary noise.


Just order a Blue Tokai Coffee or maybe go to Burma Burma or maybe order something from RforRabbit for your kid =)



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Next week, we will discuss the Liberty Media Demerger, which happened in 1990 in the US.


Super complex but something to understand, learn from and be prepared if something similar happens in the future.


A Joel Greenblatt special..



Until then, stay safe and dont get the Bears bite you =)




My Best,


Neil Bahal

Currently in zen mode

Negen Capital




Ps- The Title race heats up more than ever. Liverpool completely dominated City like no team has ever done but couldnt win, 1-1 it was.


Big games up ahead.


YNWA.




Disclaimer: This newsletter prepared by Negen Capital Services Pvt. Ltd (Negen) is for educational and information purposes only. Negen is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and acting as an Investment Manager to AIFs registered with SEBI.


While the newsletter discusses just general market insights and past case studies, still, the investments in stock market have very high risk which can result in losses including loss of principal. The companies referred (if any) in the newsletter are only for informational purposes. Negen does not recommend to subscribe to the securities of any of the companies referred in the newsletter. The readers are always advised to independently evaluate and/or consult their financial advisors before making any investment.


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