Hey ,

With the U.S. election shaping up, here's a simple breakdown of what we might expect as investors if Trump returns to the White House:

1. Potential Market Boost

If Trump wins, we could see a short-term market lift. This is because his policies typically favor businesses, with ideas like tax cuts and fewer regulations. This means consumer spending and business profits might see a boost.

2. Risk of Market Ups and Downs

On the flip side, Trump's trade policies—like tariffs—could bring back some uncertainty. We might see more volatility, especially for companies that do business globally. Markets in places like China and South Korea could feel the impact of any new trade tensions.

3. Favouring Traditional Industries

Trump’s win may benefit industries like oil, gas, defence, and banking. However, this growth might also bring inflation risk if productivity doesn’t keep up with demand.

An Easy Analogy

Imagine Trump as the driver of a car: he likes to speed up (boost growth) by cutting regulations and taxes. This helps the car go faster but could cause the engine (economy) to overheat (inflate) if it’s not well-maintained.

Certain industries might see growth, like oil and defense (think companies like Exxon and Lockheed), along with financial institutions like JPMorgan.

Reduced Recession Risk

The probability of a recession is now rapidly falling, as shown in historical tracking data below since 1983 and projections for the period from July 2024 through September 2025. This trend is likely to continue, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce a quarter-point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate at its November 7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This move could further support economic growth by making borrowing more affordable for businesses and consumers.

I’ll keep you updated on opportunities as things develop.

Best regards,

Zest Chia

Executive Wealth Consultant | Associate Estate Planning Practitioner |

Licensed General Insurance Advisory

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