Upcoming Courses

Only a few weeks before this year’s remote, open enrollment courses begin, https://www.eventzilla.net/e/advanced-bayesian-modeling-in-stan-2138661763. If you’re interested in learning about how to implement robust Bayesian mixture, survival, pairwise comparison, and/or ordinal models then don’t miss out. The course material is pretty awesome, if I do say so myself.

Upcoming Office Hours

On Tuesday, August 12 at 1:30 PM EDT I'll be hosting another round of statistics office hours, https://www.patreon.com/posts/hot-and-humid-8-134225391. In these office hours I address as many questions as possible on topics spanning modeling, inference, visualization, probabilistic programming, and more. The livestream and VOD will be public; you just need a free Patreon account to add your question to the queue or a Google account to ask questions live during the livestream.

Recent Writing

Mixture models are for degenerates (very much pun intended) but _dynamic_ mixture models are for the real degenerates. My latest chapter goes into depth on hidden Markov models.

HTML: https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapters_html/hidden_markov_models.html

PDF: https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapters_pdf/hidden_markov_models.pdf

The chapter covers the mathematical structure of hidden Markov models, the details of effectively marginalizing out hidden states, robust implementations including both log scale and rescaling methods, and some bells and whistles like equilibrated initial states and hidden tensor states.

Consulting and Training

Are you, or is someone you know, struggling to develop, implement, or scale a Bayesian analysis compatible with your domain expertise? If so then I can help.

I can be reached at inquiries@symplectomorphic.com for any questions about potential consulting engagements and training courses.

Probabilistic Modeling Discord

I set up a Discord server dedicated to discussion about (narratively) generative modeling of all kinds. For directions on how to join see https://www.patreon.com/posts/generative-88674175. Come join the conversation!

Support Me on Patreon

If my work had benefited your own and you have the resources then consider supporting me on Patreon, https://www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha. Amongst other bonuses, over the past few months my supporters have enjoyed sneak previews of the material for the upcoming courses.