So far, we have analyzed the 2024 election through the lens of secular voters compared to religious voters (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). This analysis will focus specifically on secular voters and compare them to the general U.S. voting population. We will continue using the AP/NORC VoteCast from last year, but will specifically examine partisan identification and ideology among secular voters.

The first thing we notice when looking at the chart of party identification among voters in 2024 is that secular voters lean significantly more Democratic than the general voting population. According to the VoteCast, in 2024, 45% of voters identified as Democrats, while 50% identified as Republicans and 6% as independents, with no leanings toward either major party. Notably, when examining the darker shades representing those who identify as either Democratic or Republican, we see that Republicans have a slight advantage of five percentage points (42% to 37%). This means that of the U.S. voting population, about 22% identified as independents, split fairly evenly between Democrats and Republicans, with a small fraction unaligned.

In stark contrast, almost two-thirds of secular voters identify as Democrats. Specifically, 50% identify as members of the Democratic Party, while an additional 14% lean toward the Democratic Party. By comparison, although 50% of the overall voter population identified as Republican or Republican-leaning, only 28% of secular voters identified as Republican. This represents a more than 2:1 ratio of Democratic-identifying voters to Republican-identifying voters among secular voters. Interestingly, while only 22% of voters overall identified as independents, this number rises to 28% among secular voters. Of these, half (14%) lean Democratic, while 6% lean Republican. 

When we look at the partisanship of candidates’ supporters, it's unsurprising that about 72% of voters supporting Vice President Kamala Harris identify as Democrats, with an additional 15% leaning Democratic. This means that nearly nine in ten (87%) Harris voters identify as Democrats, with only 6% identifying as independents and a similar number identifying as Republican or leaning Republican. In the case of Donald Trump voters, 77% identify as Republican, with an additional 14% leaning Republican, totaling 91%. Only 5% are independents, while less than 4% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. 

Secular Harris supporters lean slightly more Democratic than Harris supporters overall. Nine-in-ten (90%) identify as Democrats; however, a slightly higher proportion of Harris's secular supporters are independent Democratic-leaners rather than strictly identifying as Democrats. Nearly one-in-five (19%) secular Harris supporters are Democratic independent leaners, with 71% identifying as Democrats. Only 4% classify themselves as Republicans or Republican leaners, while 6% consider themselves independents with no leans. In contrast, among secular Trump voters, 10% identify as independents, which is a notable difference compared to secular Harris voters. Approximately 85% of secular Trump supporters are Republicans or Republican leaners. Only 5% of Trump’s secular supporters are Democrats.

The partisan trends among secular voters are not surprising, but it’s important to highlight that even within a group that leans heavily Democratic, there still is a significant Republican presence. According to the 2024 Pew Religious Landscape Survey, 62% of secular people in the United States identify as Democratic or Democratic-leaning, while 31% identify or lean Republican, very close to their distribution among voters in the 2024 VoteCast.

However, it's essential to understand that party loyalty runs deep. It would be a mistake to assume that secular voters who are Republicans will disregard the Republican Party because the party is run by theocrats interested in dismantling the separation of church and state. For some, issues such as endorsing mass deportations and paying lower taxes may take precedence over concerns about keeping prayer out of schools or using vouchers to support religious schools.

Next week, I will analyze the secular vote by self-described ideology, aiming to uncover more trends as we continue our examination of the 2024 secular vote. In a few weeks, I hope to shift our focus to policy preferences that go beyond identity and delve into the clear differences between secular Democrats and Republicans. I previously explored these in TheHumanist.com while analyzing secular voters for the 2020 elections.