The Secular Vote in 2024 (Part Three)

May 09, 2025 1:21 pm

We have focused on secularism and the secular vote in 2024 for the past couple of weeks. We've established two key points: First, secular voters are the most likely to support Democratic candidates, in this case, Kamala Harris. Second, seculars represent the largest religious cohort within the Democratic electorate today. Nearly one-third of Democratic Party voters in 2024 are secular, and two-thirds of secular voters supported Kamala Harris.


This week, we're delving into the diversity of the secular vote by analyzing the three largest religious affiliation groups based on race to uncover any trends. Unsurprisingly, Black Protestants and White Protestants have different voting behaviors; however, since White Protestants are a larger segment of the population, their strong support for Trump influences the overall Protestant vote. Similar patterns exist among Latino (Democratic-leaning) and White Catholics (Republican-leaning).


The chart below breaks down how various racial and religious groups voted for the Democratic Party in 2024, based on AP/NORC Votecast data. The data are categorized by race (White, Black, Latinx, Asian) and further segmented into the three largest religious identity cohorts: Protestant/Other Christian, Catholic, and Secular.


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Among White voters, support for the Democratic Party is the lowest across Christian identity cohorts, with only 28% of White Protestants and 39% of White Catholics voting Democratic. By contrast, two-thirds (67%) of White secular voters supported the Democratic Party, highlighting a significant religious divide.


Black voters demonstrate overwhelming support for the Democrats regardless of religious affiliations, with minimal variation: more than eight-in-ten Black Protestants (84%), Black Catholics (81%), and Black secular (81%) voters cast their votes for Kamala Harris. This data reveals a strong political cohesion among Black voters, regardless of their religious identity.


Latinx voters show a wider range of Democratic support: fewer than four-in-ten (39%) Latinx Protestants voted for Harris, the only major cohort among people of color where a majority voted for Trump. Most (57%) Latinx Catholics and seven-in-ten (70%) secular Latinx voters supported Harris. The majority of Asian voters supported Harris, with 59% of Asian Protestants, 52% of Asian Catholics, and 72% of secular Asian voters.


Overall, the chart highlights two key trends: secular voters across all racial groups are significantly more likely to vote Democratic, and black voters remain the most unified bloc in their support for the Democratic Party, regardless of religious affiliation.


Secular voters are most likely to vote for Democrats, demonstrating unity across racial lines. White secular Americans are the only group of Whites that consistently votes for Democrats. Secular voters exhibit a level of unity similar to that of Black Americans, which is remarkable.


As we consider how to rescue U.S. democracy, if that is even possible, we must acknowledge the significance of secular Americans as a political force. While I am not suggesting that there are no racist individuals within this group, generally, they tend to be more open to a pluralistic society and more supportive of social equality than their Christian counterparts. They are also more accepting of diverse religious beliefs, unlike those professing Christian Nationalism.


What we are witnessing is a coalition of secular Americans alongside others who are not Christian, working against the Christian supremacy represented by the Republican Party. A few months ago, in my blog post for Kettering Foundation’s “From Many, We,” I suggested that there is an increasing support for Christians of color for Trump and a growing acceptance of Christian nationalism. This is a significant issue that aligns with the data we are seeing.


It's encouraging that the recent political shifts did not impact secular individuals as heavily as they did other Christian groups. This presents an opportunity for us to begin rebuilding, not just restoring democracy and creating a "more perfect union" that takes secular Americans seriously as a political force. We must consider their views on diversity and pluralism as fundamental to revitalizing a small-d democratic culture that genuinely embraces democracy.

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