In our last issue, we examined the role of secular voters (Americans who identify with no religion) in the 2024 election. The data revealed something striking, though not surprising: secular voters were the strongest supporters of Kamala Harris. Over two-thirds (68%) of them backed her, making this group more supportive of a Democratic presidential candidate than any other religious or non-religious cohort.

When we examine their voting behavior more closely, we see that secular voters weren’t just enthusiastic Harris supporters; they made up nearly one-third of her total voter base. Data from the 2024 VoteCast survey, conducted by the Associated Press and NORC, show that 31% of all Democratic voters identified as non-religious.

In contrast, only about 13% of Trump voters identified as secular. This means non-religious Americans are significantly overrepresented among Democratic voters and underrepresented among Republicans, despite comprising roughly one-in-five (22%) voters in the VoteCast sample; less than one-in-six Republican voters identified as secular.

This divide is consistent with a trend that has been ongoing since the 1990s. The Democratic Party has increasingly drawn support from the secular population, while the GOP has leaned heavily into Christian identity politics. As Republicans double down on anti-science rhetoric, religious nationalism, and culture war messaging such as transphobia, race essentialism, and opposition to diversity programs, secular voters are largely rejecting that agenda.

Still, secular voters are not a political monolith. About three-in-ten voted for Trump in 2024. We don’t have detailed data about how these voters identify within the secular spectrum, whether as atheists, agnostics, or simply "nothing in particular." The VoteCast captures only religious affiliation, not belief in the supernatural or church attendance, so we do not know how religious beliefs and practices affected the secular vote last year.

It’s also important to remember that many secular Americans identify as political independents. Historically, this group has shown weak attachment to either party. Yet despite self-describing as independents, they consistently lean Democratic, not out of party loyalty, but often because the GOP is openly antagonistic to their values.

This is a pattern we’ve seen with other marginalized groups as well. Just as many Black or Latino voters support Democrats while expressing frustration with party inaction, secular voters may vote blue more as a defensive measure than a full endorsement. The Democratic Party, while more welcoming to secular ideas, still struggles to engage and represent these voters actively.