Over the last few weeks, we have had new developments in the field of religion and government. It comes as no surprise that the IRS has determined that it won’t be investigating preachers who endorse candidates from the pulpit. 

These actions are supposed to be the rebirth of Christianity in the United States, which has consistently declined over the years. At this point, some states have a secular plurality, and among younger people, secularity is very common. It has been a long-held goal for the Christian Right to use the tools of the state to impose their beliefs. Not just in a subtle way, as it has always been enforced by civil religion or societal norms that default to Christianity, but actually using the coercive power of the state. If there were a wall separating religion from government, these individuals want to destroy it completely, and it seems that they are achieving that at this point.

However, they haven’t really addressed the issues of the wall built between religion and the people. In my opinion, this will lead to the failure of their plan. We have seen for decades how the Christian Right has been trying to impose their beliefs onto people, and not coincidentally, the affiliation with Christianity in the country has declined. A country that was nearly 90% Christian at some point and had a small secular contingent just 35 years ago has now become one where about 60% are Christians and 30% are non-religious. We could attribute this decline to various factors, one being the political activity of the Christian Right, alongside its hypocrisy in terms of morals, which has fueled the growth of secularism in the country.

Many in the media highlight that most of the people who are non-religious in this country are not atheists or agnostics. Here is the hard, cold truth: most of the people who have left religion are former Christians. They no longer identify as Christian, aren’t moving toward more progressive forms of Christianity, and many have even left more progressive forms of Christianity without thinking about coming back. Moreover, as I have noted in this newsletter before, the proportion of secular people in the United States who identify as atheist or agnostic has continued to increase over time, including the proportion of secular people who do not believe in God but do not call themselves atheists or agnostics.

So what I’m suggesting here is that even though the secular boom of the last two decades may be plateauing, we could be moving toward a new era of secularization. I am aware that the low-hanging fruit has already been taken; most people who were nominally religious and have left their religious affiliations are not going back to religion, and there aren’t necessarily many of those people left. In fact, we may have a stronger polarization in which the people who remain in churches are actually more conservative than previous generations, because those who were less likely to practice and just kept the cultural and identity parts of religion have left. However, most people are not interested in having religion pushed upon them, and so what we may see is a new type of secular boom.

Let me explain myself. Most people are not particularly activist in their secularism. They don’t belong to organizations that are atheist or humanist. Most secular adults in the U.S. are essentially “apatheists” who don’t care about religion. They’re not necessarily atheists or agnostics, but they really don’t think about God. They don’t practice any kind of prayer or spiritual practices, despite claims of spiritual release, which remains vague. 

Even though organizations, along with media outlets, love to shout about how Americans may not be religious but still believe in some kind of spirituality, this is not the reality. Instead, this new secular boom may manifest in two ways: we could be seeing the birth of a more active secularism as a rejection of the proselytizing efforts from religious groups and we could see a new exodus from people who practice religion, disgusted by the remaining pastors who were hesistant of endorsing candidates and now feel liberated to do so. 

Public opinion on this issue is not particularly robust, but we have some consistent evidence. For example, a PRRI survey from 2023 found that overall, only one in five U.S. adults were in favor of churches and places of worship endorsing political candidates while retaining their tax-exempt status. Support was highest among white evangelical Protestants, with 36% in favor. 

The people who were the most opposed to it are the non-religious, with only 8% in favor of the endorsement of candidates by churches. 

In 2022, the Pew Research Center asked a similar question, and more than three-quarters of respondents said that churches and other houses of worship should not come out in favor of one candidate over another. Again, the most likely to say they should not come in favor were the non-religious, with 87% opposed, which is 10% higher than the overall U.S. population. The most likely to support endorsements were white evangelicals at 36%. The same survey revealed that only 31% of adults believe churches express their views on day-to-day social and political issues. Finally, the 2023 Pew Research Center's Religious Landscape Survey found that a majority of adults agree that churches are too involved in politics. These four data points suggest that most people in this country are not interested in hearing more from churches when it comes to politics.

For the most part, even those who are religious aren’t interested in hearing political messages from the pulpit. This makes me think that the attempts to push religion from various angles, especially by this Christian nationalist administration, might backfire. While we may not see an outright explosion of people moving away from religion, it’s possible that the plateau of secularism could last longer, and we might even witness an increase in secular activism in this country.

Question wording:

1. During political elections, should churches and other houses of worship come out in favor of one candidate over another? (Pew, 2022)
2. Yes, should do this
3. No, should not do this
4. In your opinion, should churches and other houses of worship… (Pew, 2022)
5. Keep out of political matters
6. Express their views on day-to-day social and political questions
7. How much do you favor or oppose…Allowing churches and places of worship to endorse political candidates while retaining their tax-exempt status (PRRI. 2023)
8. On a different subject, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about churches and other religious organizations? Churches and other religious organizations…Are too involved with politics