I want to continue with the discussion of the American Values Survey by PRRI. Last week, I mentioned that secular people are heavily invested in opposing Trump and his administration. On every question where a majority of the public disagrees with an action the administration has taken, secular people are at least 15 to 20 points more opposed. However, it is also true, as I noted, that even though secular people have a very negative view of the Republican Party overall, their opinion of the Democratic Party is not as high as the average person in the country. This poses a challenge electorally as we approach Election Day 2025 and the 2026 midterm elections.

The AVS asked questions about the generic ballot leading up to the November 2026 election and revealed that Democrats have a slight advantage in the generic ballot, 33 to 30 over Republicans. However, 20% of the population indicated they are unsure about their voting choice, and an additional 12% stated they will not vote. Today, I want to focus on these aspects of the 2026 election, especially since few generic ballot questions include breakdowns by religion as specific as those in the PRRI surveys.

I’m going to analyze four specific groups: independent voters (those who do not identify with the major political parties), secular or nonreligious people, Latino Catholics, and Latino Protestants. These groups may not overlap significantly, but they do share a propensity to be overrepresented among independent voters. 

In this case, independent voters prefer Democrats to Republicans by a two-to-one margin (30% to 15%). Yet, a significant portion (33%) remains undecided about who they will vote for in 2026, and an additional 11% say they will not participate in that election. Among the religious cohorts identified, many indicate they will not vote in 2026: 19% of Latino Protestants, and 15% of the nonreligious and Latino Catholics.

Historically, the latter two of these groups have leaned Democratic, and currently, secular individuals favor Democrats by a four-to-one margin (48% to 11%). Even with 20% of secular voters undecided, the plurality still leans toward Democrats. We expect that as the election approaches, many of these individuals will likely vote Democratic.

For Latino Catholics, the Democrats hold a 41% to 17% advantage, with 21% unsure of their voting choice. Even if these undecided individuals lean Republican, Democrats would still maintain a preference among this group. 

Latino Protestants have been swing voters but have shown a strong Republican turn since 2016. Currently, Republicans hold a decent 12-point advantage in the generic ballot, with 23% still undecided. If that percentage splits along recent lines, the Republican candidates are likely to secure a larger share of these ballots moving forward.

These groups have different reasons for their high number of potential non-voters and those unsure about their voting intentions. In the case of independents, they don’t have a strong attachment to political parties. I would bet that among those leaning toward a party, the 33% of undecideds will likely split along their leanings. The larger question is whether those without strong leanings will show up to vote, particularly in a midterm election.

The 20% of secular individuals who have yet to decide on their 2026 vote will be influenced mainly by their leanings and dislike of Trump, which may overshadow their apathy toward Democrats. Though 42% of secular people view the Democratic Party positively, we should remember that about 7 in 10 secular voters supported Harris in 2024. In other words, many secular people who voted for Harris in 2024 do not have a favorable view of the party in 2025. The AVA asked why people have a negative opinion of the parties, though the report did not break the results down by religious affiliation. Many Democrats who don’t like the party feel that their values are not represented. While some may be conservative, many, especially among the secular group, are liberals or liberal-leaning individuals who don’t believe the party is progressive enough.

The situation with Latino Catholics reveals an important dynamic in American politics. Historically, Latino Catholics have leaned heavily Democratic in elections, at least before 2024. This is a group that is very misunderstood, as it is generally quite progressive on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage, environmental issues like climate change, immigration, and economic justice. My dissertation research indicated that many Latinos, especially Latino Catholics, felt (and feel) that the Democratic Party takes them for granted. This sentiment may explain why Latino turnout was down in 2024. 

On the other hand, Latino Protestants, in contrast to Latino Catholics, have become solidly Republican over time. While there may be various reasons for this shift, a significant subset of Latino Protestants still maintains ties to immigrant communities: many are immigrants themselves or serve in ministries that cater to immigrant constituencies. Immigration may be the reason Latino Protestants have the highest rates of not voting/undecided in 2026. They may be socially conservative, and even economically conservative, but the AVA shows that this group has aggregate positive views on immigration and is the strongest supporter among GOP-aligned constituencies of a path to citizenship.

For a successful midterm, Democrats need to find a way to break through among these constituencies. If they can articulate not just an anti-Trump stance but also present clear, relatable explanations of what Trump’s policies have wrought and how they resonate with people’s lived experiences, they could galvanize support from those currently sympathetic with the cause but disenchanted with the party.