Hello ,

Over the weekend, there were military developments involving the United States and Iran. As expected, financial markets reacted when trading opened.

Here is what is happening in simple terms:

1️⃣ Oil prices have gone up sharply

Oil prices jumped about 8–10% because investors are worried about supply disruptions.

A key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route in the Middle East where about 20% of the world’s oil passes through. If that route were disrupted, oil supply could tighten temporarily.

2️⃣ This is mainly a short-term reaction

Right now, markets are adding what we call a “risk premium” meaning prices rise because of fear and uncertainty, not because actual supply has stopped.

Several analysts have pointed out that if the conflict does not spread or last long, oil prices could fall back after the tension eases. We have seen similar patterns before.

3️⃣ History gives perspective

The US has been involved in Middle East conflicts before. In many past cases:

• Oil prices spiked initially
• Stock markets became volatile
• But once the situation stabilised, markets recovered

Short-term fear does not automatically mean long-term damage.

4️⃣ What would change the outlook?

The bigger risk would be:

• A prolonged disruption to oil supply
• A direct shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz
• Or a wider regional escalation

At this stage this is not the base case.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

• We may see short-term volatility.
• Energy-related assets may benefit from higher oil prices.
• Broader economic fundamentals have not changed overnight.

Your portfolio is built for long-term goals, and periods like this are expected from time to time. Reacting emotionally to headlines often leads to poor decisions.

For now, the key is to stay calm and observe how events develop.

If you would like to discuss your portfolio or have concerns, I’m here.

Warm regards,

Zest chia

Executive Wealth Consultant | Associate Estate Planning Practitioner |

Licensed General Insurance Advisory

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