5 Pass Concepts that Increase Your Chance of Scoring
Apr 20, 2021 6:29 pm
Coach ,
We always throw around the term explosive plays and generally, teams have a set amount of these they want in a game as well as a definition of what constitutes an explosive play. The term explosive play came about in 2001 when Mike Earys revealed the concept of “explosive plays,” one of his lasting contributions to football analysis. Eayrs discovered the concept of explosive plays during the 1970s and 1980s.
"What we looked at was, what is the minimum yardage you need on one play to significantly affect the scoring probability of that possession?" Eayrs explained. “So we did a formula called a linear regression, and what the results of the study revealed was, to significantly affect the probability of scoring on a single drive, you needed a passing gain of 16 yards or greater and a running gain of 12 yards or greater. So that became our line of demarcation."
Earys found explosive plays dramatically increased the odds that a drive would end in a score. A single explosive play (12 yard run or 16 yard pass) in a drive gives the offense a 40% chance of scoring points. Two explosives in s a drive double the odds of scoring to 80%
So with Eayrs statistic in mind, what passing plays give you that ability to get a 16 yard explosive play and dramatically increase your chance of scoring on that drive?
We’ve identified 5 concepts that do exactly that.
#1 Y-Cross - It’s a staple of the Air Raid, but the Air Raid doesn’t own exclusive rights! This is a concept that is effective in any offense from a variety of formations, with or without play-action. Lincoln Riley has made it a big part of one of the most explosive offenses in college football year-in and year-out.
Andrew Coverdale, 12x state champion offensive coordinator, covers his Pocket-Out Concept which he likes paired with the Y-Cross. Coach Riley showed the fade-out and Coverdale explains the details they utilize in this video:
#2 Drive - Penn State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich said, “It’s a lot of fun to run because you can formation it and have a lot of fun in how you are trying to get your personnel matched up.” You can start with an isolation on the backside. The basic route (dig) and the isolation which works off of the boundary safety as the read key gives you an opportunity to take a chunk of yardage with the throw. It also has a nice man beater route in the shallow which allows for you to get the chunk of yardage with the run after catch. He explains it in this video:
#3 Double Post - It is built on the spacing created by the specific angles of each post. It also allows for some simple game plan adjustments to the backside receiver routes to make the play even more dynamic. Strategically, this play is best up to the +40 and is a nice shot play that can hit the home run in that area of the field. Jarret Troxler, offensive coordinator at Ohio powerhouse Massillon Washington breaks down game film on their double post in this video.
#4 Stop N Go Read - Kevin Kelley, 9x state champion at Pulaski Academy likes to run high percentage routes, even when his team is taking a shot. His simple Stop n Go Read creates one of those opportunities as well as the chance for that chunk play that increases the likelihood of scoring on that drive. He explains here:
#5 Double Moves off Quicks- Mickey Fein. believes you always need a beater or compliment to the other things you do. Whether your quick game is within your RPO package or exists on it’s own, double moves off of quick game are an extremely effective way of creating that explosive play. He explains in this video:
Remember, the idea is to get at least one of those explosive plays on each drive. The result is points on the board and that is always a win for the offense and your team.
Always be growing!
Coach Grabowski