Housing market update
Apr 15, 2024 1:51 pm
Hi there,
Here's my weekly update for April 15th, 2024...
🎥 🔥 Misconceptions Debunked: What the CPI Surge Really Means for Rates 🔥| #realestate
CPI Shock at 3.5%: Rethinking Rate Cut Expectations
🔥 Misconceptions Debunked: What the CPI Surge Really Means for Rates 🔥
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hot at 3.5%, sparking immediate speculation about potential falling interest rates.
But hold that thought—things aren't as straightforward as they seem....
🎥 Inflation Alert: How Today's CPI Report Affects Your Home Buying Plans #housingmarket
**Pause the News Cycle!
** 🛑
🔥 Today’s CPI report lit up at 3.5%—igniting thoughts of falling interest rates, right?
Wrong.
Let's clear up some misconceptions with fresh insights from the Fed.
🔄 Fed President Neel Kashkari just tossed a wrench into the usual rate cut forecasts....
🎥 📈🔥 **Economic Update: Surprising ADP Job Numbers Exceed Expectations!** 🚀💼 #housingmarket
📈🔥 **Economic Update: Surprising ADP Job Numbers Exceed Expectations!
** 🚀💼
This month's ADP job report has delivered some unexpected news, with job creation leaping to 184,000—far surpassing the anticipated 150,000.This significant uptick marks a positive shift in employment trends 🎯📊....
🎥 📉🔍 **Reality Check: Job Growth Numbers vs. Economic Feelings** 🏢💬 #housingmarket
📉🔍 **Reality Check: Job Growth Numbers vs.
Economic Feelings** 🏢💬
Recent reports have revealed a stark contrast in job growth expectations versus reality....
🎥 📉📊 **Economic Insights: Powell's Take on Inflation and Rate Cuts** 🏦💬 #housingmarket
📉📊 **Economic Insights: Powell's Take on Inflation and Rate Cuts** 🏦💬
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made headlines yesterday with a cautious stance on rate cuts.
He emphasized the need for more favorable inflation reports before considering any reductions in rates 🕒🔍....
🗒️ Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again
Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again
Friday ended up being reasonably pleasant, but mostly uneventful.
Gains were in place from the overnight session on a combination of European economic data and central banker comments.
Geopolitical headlines may have played a role at times, and end-of-week position squaring probably had some impact as well.
None of the above really matters in the bigger picture.
Bonds lost a lot of ground this week as inflation remained higher than the market hoped.
The end.
Now we wait for the next big data with the power to change that bigger picture narrative and that means we'll be waiting for next month's inflation reports.
It's not that 2nd tier reports like next week's Retail Sales or the following week's PCE inflation are incapable of moving the needle, but they'd have a hard time moving it enough to shift a bigger picture trend.
Econ Data / Events
Import Prices
0.4 v 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev
Export Prices
0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.7 prev...
🗒️ Mortgage Rates Move Lower After 2-Day Rout, But Underwhelmingly So
Wednesday was one of the worst days in decades in terms of single-day upward movement in mortgage rates.
Thursday added a bit more insult to the injury.
The resulting levels were the highest since November 2023. We should be thankful, then, that Friday managed to push back in the other direction, but it would be easier to be a lot more thankful if the improvement was a bit more robust.
Of course, things could have been worse.
We could have continued to even higher rates, so the lamentation here is a being intentionally dramatized a bit.
Nonetheless, it's a worth noting that the average lender is still basically right in line with the levels that broke our hearts on Wednesday afternoon.
The optimists out there can cheer the fact that we mostly erased Thursday's additional bump.
The rest of us will continue aspiring to live with such a glass-half-full mentality.
As for the nuts and bolts, the bond market improved overnight and then slowly deteriorated for most of the domestic trading session.
The movement wasn't big enough for most mortgage lenders to change rate sheets over the course of the day.
Instead, they set rates fairly conservatively in the morning (if they hadn't, we likely would have seen some upward adjustments in the afternoon).
The average lender is still in the 7.25-7.375% range for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed, but it's easier to quote 7.125% today with some additional upfront cost.
Enjoy,
Brenden Rendo (The Homes In Orlando Team)
