Let's start with some optimism before we get back to the virus.

We're Going to Live Forever

I've long thought that the first generation to live forever would be our children. It's increasingly looking like it might be us.

We've known for years that telomere length is a decent proxy for cellular aging (longer telomeres = younger). This week a Harvard team made a breakthrough in preserving/lengthening telomeres. They envision an oral drug that will restore telomeres in stem cells.

But even better, a preprint from Steve Horvath's team out of UCLA details how they reversed the age of rats by 54%! The leading expert in Anti-Aging, Dr. David Sinclair, explained on twitter:

This is really fantastic news, and makes Gavin Belson's blood boy look a little less silly. For more on the incredible science fiction-like progress the longevity field has made in the last half decade, read Dr. Sinclair's book or listen to him on Dr. Peter Attia's podcast (1,2).

Ok, now back to the virus...

Why Trump Has Blown The Virus

Way back in the summer of 2015 I predicted that Trump would win the presidency. It was clear he was leagues ahead of the competition when it came to persuasion, which is all that really matters for winning an election.

When he coined "nicknames" like Low Energy Jeb and Crooked Hillary, it showed he was playing 4 dimensional chess, bringing a flamethrower to a knife fight.

Well, it turns out that no degree of chess is effective against the virus (although, come to think of it, a flamethrower might be).

But seriously, I think the fundamental issue is that his primary approach to problem solving has been to "win the narrative" etc. Unfortunately, you can't beat a virus by calling it names (and that might inflame a trade war). And Trump doesn't have anything else in the playbook.

To make matters worse, the government beyond Trump has somehow blown it even more epically. We've long known how the CDC and FDA collaborated to delay any meaningful testing in the USA for over a month. And just this week, the FDA shut down a Bill Gates funded home testing program because they had gotten the licenses needed to administer and analyze the tests, but not the license necessary to tell the patients whether they tested positive(!).

The testing debacle has gotten so bad that Senators have introduced legislation that would "allow states to approve and distribute diagnostic tests during a public health emergency." Because, currently, they are prevented from doing that(!).

Multiple federal agencies have also been implicated in stealing PPE from states at the border, to the point where states were smuggling in masks on private planes(!).

And finally, remember when the WHO and the CDC told everyone that masks were useless for months?

Absolutely unbelievable incompetence, bordering on malevolence, across the entire federal government.

BTW - Before you say it's because these agencies are underfunded, keep in mind that all of the following would have been absolutely FREE: not shutting down private testing multiple times, not stealing PPE at ports. And telling people to wear masks in February.

But Maybe We'll Get Away With It

I'm not the first one to point out that 2020 has been bizarre. But in yet another odd twist, it kinda looks like we might (maybe?) get away with reopening without proper precautions. Incredibly.

The country has, in part, reopened.

And despite that, we're not exactly seeing an accompanying surge in cases.

In fact, J.P. Morgan even released a report that shows (according to their analysis) the reproductivity of the virus has actually decreased in states that have reopened:

We aren't the only ones who appear to be getting a freebie (so far). Denmark's equivalent of the CDC is openly wondering why the disease hasn't spread more, saying "we do not understand why there are not more infected". They reopened over 4 weeks ago now.

If the virus really just dissipates like this, it would be an incredible stroke of luck for an American government that has handled this so poorly. It will look like they did well enough (it could have been worse!) and the economy will have been largely kept on life support by increasingly large stimulus bills.

In fact, the enormous HEROES act that has been passed to the Senate might be the last tranche of money needed to keep the wheels on the bus through to other side. Particularly the second round of $1200 checks and the extension of the additional $600/week UI payments all the way through the end of the year.

BUT...

Incredibly, Trump Might Blow the Recovery Too

After months of fucking up something that's not in his wheelhouse (the virus), Trump appears poised to fuck up something squarely in his wheelhouse (the economy). Maybe he just wants a refreshing change of pace.

White House advisers think the economy is already on the mend, saying things like "I've been really positively impressed by how quickly things are turning" and "this is playing out pretty much as had been hoped."

Trump, ever the optimist, seems to agree. He's now opposing the extension of UI benefits, concerned that it disincentivizes work.

But here's the problem. For these currently unemployed people to be hired, jobs need to be created. For those jobs to be created, businesses need revenue. Which means people need money to spend. No money, no jobs, much depression.

If you're still unsure where Trump thinks we are in the pandemic, someone in the White House said Wednesday, "Except for the beginning... I think we did a good job." Did. Past tense.

I'm not sure about this - but there is some support for the idea that Trump might be harming the economy on purpose. There's precedent, just listen to a former chief economist claim that Japanese politicians told him they were purposefully slowing recovery (~32:30 here). And as Naval Ravikant pointed out this week, there can be incentive for politicians to make economic woes into full blown calamities.

More convincing (to me, at least) is that Q3 numbers are slated for release five days before the presidential election this fall. An awful Q2 makes it a lot easier to have what looks like an impressive turnaround in Q3 (measured quarter over quarter). The White House is already priming the pump here:

It seems... risky, to say the least. But much more in line with the kind of 4D chess Trump likes to think himself playing. And perhaps a more rational explanation than a politician (in an election year!) cutting spending when no one thinks he should.

Interestingly, if the country does survive the virus only to endure a stumbling recovery, it would mirror the experience of many human victims of the virus.

Thanks for reading, see you next week!

Kit