This week, trying a feature image^ that's relevant to the content.

No More Mr. Smart Guys

Trump has suspended many new foreign work visas, including the ever-popular H1B. I call it ever-popular, because even when people complain about immigration (they took our jerbs), it usually isn't H1B.

This is because H1B is the smart immigrants, specifically to work jobs that require a college degree.

And in general, people with college degrees are less likely to complain about immigrants, even when those immigrants are taking their jobs.

H1B is shadier than you think

The conversation about H1B usually centers around a "labor shortage" of smart Americans.

Of course, a "labor shortage" is really just code employers use when they think "these smart employees are getting paid too much, and we'd like to get them cheaper, please."

In fact, it is accepted in some academic circles that H1B was initially created as a literal conspiracy to purposefully drive down wages of smart labor. In fact, up until Trump's order, universities were exempt from the limits on H1B workers.

H1B is also abused (like any government program, to be fair), and a surprisingly large chunk of the immigrants report being abused themselves.

But none of that matters

You'll be shocked - shocked! - to hear that I think almost everyone is missing the point here.

It's not about racism or labor shortages. It's not about Americans getting paid less than they should be.

It's not even about capturing the productivity gains of smart people for America (though we're getting closer).

It's all about the serendipity we either get or we don't.

Innovation is Binary

You either have the great idea, or you don't. And to be worthwhile, you need to execute too.

Where you are, who you spend time with, what you spend time working on - all contribute to whether you will get the idea, or be able to execute.

And those great ideas are really what matter here, as we know the bulk of world progress comes from a relatively small share of the most important efforts.

The issue with stopping H1B is not just that America might miss out on the next Elon Musk.

It's that if the next Elon Musk can't get to America, he might not become the next Elon Musk at all.

And then the whole world misses out.

With World GDP growth flagging, we can't afford that.

Current world GDP is ~$82T. If we miss out on a few of the next Elons, maybe we lose one percentage point of growth each year?

Then over the next decade, the world would miss $42T in value.

That's a lot of people stuck languishing in poverty, who would have otherwise escaped it.

I think we owe it to humanity to make sure that the smartest people can get to the best places. Because even just missing 1% of the best ideas is a disaster.

Thanks for reading, see you next week!

Kit