Hi Friends,

As of late, I've been thinking a lot about this simple reminder:

Go from being overly concerned with what you think to how you think.

The Problem

Did you know that 90% of the worlds best wealth managers are wrong more than 80% of the time when predicting the market? Did you know that when experts in foreign exchange rates were asked to predict end of year exchange rate, the top companies (like Barclays, JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, and more), the majority where wrong. As the authors of Superforecasting put it, "[They were] roughly as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee."

How is it that top experts and specialists can't even gauge their own industry with accuracy? It all comes down to one core difference... something I find absolutely simple and invaluable called active open-mindedness.

Active Open-Mindedness

This term is coined by physiologist Jonathan Baron. Active open-mindedness is, "[viewing] their own ideas as hypothesis in need of testing." ...rather than ideas being the end all, be all.

Society tends to go towards confirmation bias. Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. But ideas are made for testing, not confirmation bias.

This is against the human tendency of confirmation bias, the sunk cost fallacy, and loss aversion.

In simple words: 

It's easier to stick with what we feel is right - even when data proves to be counter - than to question our own assertions, aggregate perspectives, and connect conflicting angles.

And this is why experts were truly bad at forecasting their speciality. Specialist (can) become highly vested in singular approaches to problems rather than people who can sythenesize hundreds of angles.

Practical example: Buying a house isn't the 'right' move nor is renting the 'right' move. It's a move. It's not the decision. It's a decision.

Here is the kicker.

The world is a highly contextual & unknowable space - based on your tendencies, risk tolerance, your goals, the global economy, viruses, weather, how you slept last night, and a whole host of other things... there are many 'right' moves... and basically, there are 1000 ways to interpret the same situation.

Active open-mindedness is genuinely curiosity about everything.

How to

There is another word for this that we all know quite well, which is: learning. Learning is the acquisition of knowledge or skills through experience, study, or by being taught. Active open-mindedness is basically open to learning new, old, and unfamiliar ideas. Here are a few ways to add active open-mindedness to your daily routine:

1. Question your assumptions: Why will it take 8 years to do that? Why do you have to do it in that order? Question your assumptions to further clarify the logic
2. Being open to reasoning that is counter to your current view point and try and understand it - truly
3. Play one scenario out 10 ways, as if they were real right now
4. And most simply, giving yourself the space to sythenesis conflicting ideas

Final Thought

Active open-mindedness is about learning new things, and also making an effort to grow, which can be uncomfortable, challenging, intimidating, and slow. But, in the end, it boosts confidence and quality of life, too. So it may be worth taking a step back and consider being overly concerned with how you think not what you think.

My favorite finds this week

• Article: Why I gave my company to charity by Derek Sivers | Derek built a company called CD Baby and sold it for $22m.
• Online Course: I'm starting a small course this week on an app called Knowable called "Learn to Learn." The course is focused on expanding and learning new things (being a life-long learner) but in this newsletter, I'm also addressing something else - unlearning and relearning. In other words, challenging your systems of thinking.
• Book: Who Not How - I just bought this book online. Right now the Kindle version is just $0.99
• Quote from Derek Sivers from a section on his blog titled How to like people:

Assume it’s their last day. Everyone talks about living like it’s your last day on earth. Instead, to appreciate someone, live like it’s their last day on earth. Treat them accordingly. Try to fulfill their dreams for the day. Really listen to them. Learn from them.

All in,

David

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By David Iskander

I'm David, a search specialist, and beginner YouTuber from Orange County, CA. My motto is: Whatever you do, do it beautifully. I enjoy making YouTube videos about website design, tech, productivity, and faith.