Hey Friends,

I'm sure you are familiar with the 'R' number, when discussing the spread of covid-19, but have you heard of the 'K' number?

This week I read an interesting article which explained why 'K' a measure of whether the virus spreads steadily or in bursts, may be more important than the more commonly referenced 'R0', which measures average contagiousness.

With the sound of De La Soul playing in my head, I'm now wondering if...... 'K is the magic number'

Now, before I go any further, I should stress that I have no expertise in this area, only two eyes, ears and a natural propensity to question the narrative which is being presented. However, even to my untrained eyes, the UK's recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars etc to remain open, shows the focus may be in the wrong areas.

The author of the article I read suggests that research now suggests that the majority of infected people will likely not transmit the virus, but a few super-spreading events can lead to most of the outbreaks. He states:

A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person.

This kind of behaviour, alternating between being super infectious and fairly noninfectious, is exactly what K captures. However, even though we now know the virus spreads in clusters, under specific conditions, this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemic—or the preventive practices put forward by our leaders.

The author of the article concludes that the restrictiveness of any imposed rules may not be the best indicator of success, but rather whether the measures target the right dangers. He suggests a few simple precautions can likely prevent significant increases in COVID cases: preventing gatherings of large numbers of people in crowded, poorly ventilated places, without masks on.

With many people thinking ahead to Christmas it will be interesting to see what the Scottish government announces this week. Will they continue using the 'R' number to influence decisions, introducing more punitive restrictions on the masses, or will they follow the lead of other countries , such as Japan whose consideration of 'K' and commitment to ‘cluster-busting’ allowed it to achieve impressive mitigation with judiciously chosen restrictions. Only time will tell.

Have a great week, and keep safe.

Chris

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Things I've found interesting this week

\\ One Article: Link to the covid-19 article.

\\ Two Article: Another example of why 'Smart" doesn't always mean better.

\\ Three Article: Is your boss spying on you

Favourite Quote

It's not the hours you put in, it's what you put into the hours.

This quote is my response to Shibu Philip the boss in article three (above) who decided to spy on his employees working from home.

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