Hey friends,

Welcome to my first newsletter! You're receiving it because at some point in the past you've emailed me so I figure you wouldn't mind being put on my list. If you've totally forgotten who I am, I make internet videos about self-build garden rooms and home renovation.

That's not just what this newsletter is about though and to give you a flavour of the topics I'll cover, I'm going to make this first one a long one. If by the end you decide it's not for you, there's an unsubscribe button at the bottom...I'll try not to take it personally.

🏡 The Housing Market

You'd have had to have been locked up for the last year (okay, poor phrasing) not to have noticed that the housing market has gone completely bananas with average price increases of around 10% over the last year, despite all the while a global pandemic has been raging.

And I'm not the least bit surprised.

Allow me to roll back to 2019. Abi and I were getting more serious and buying a home together felt like the next step in our relationship. For a short while, the stars were aligned in our careers where a multiple of our combined income could allow us to jump a few rungs of the property ladder to get a potential forever home.

'This is our time' I thought, as while property prices were by no means low, there was mass hysteria around the outcome of Brexit and what that might do to property prices. Regardless of which side of the debate you were on, the only level headed conclusion to be made was that some sort of deal would be fudged together and once the uncertainty had passed, the market would kick on.

And so it came to be. After the December election, 2020 kicked off with the so-called 'Boris Bounce' and even a pandemic couldn't stop the runaway train for long and indeed the fudged deal was made in the nick of time (surprise, surprise).

There are still some disbelievers. They plan to buy 'when the stamp duty rate cut finishes' or 'when furlough ends' as prices will surely go down. Even if correct, the problem with that plan is three fold:

1. When prices drop sellers stop selling so the pool of prospective properties to choose from becomes limited.
2. During market crashes, lenders stop lending or where they do, they require higher deposit levels and/or lower multiples of income. Not great for first-time buyers.
3. Property price drops are rarely an isolated event and whether by chicken or egg, the economy takes a bash too, possibly affecting one's income and therefore ability to buy.

What About The Longer Term?

In amongst all this is how spectacularly wrong predictions of house prices have been from sources we should expect to get things at least somewhat correct. The Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer have in recent years predicted a slump and as recently as a few months ago estate agents such as Savills and banks like Halifax and Nationwide have been expecting a tumble.

However, lurking in the background is a theory known as the 18-year property cycle which, while I don't take it for gospel, I've been factoring into some of my decisions for years.

And it's held true for this cycle. After the 2008 financial crash, prices decreased before ticking upwards again*. The wobble of uncertainty came and we now look to have entered the explosive phase: the Roaring 20s are back! And all the money printing we and the rest of the world have indulged in these last 15 months will no doubt pour fuel on this fire.

But according to the discoverer of this cycle, this period of high growth will culminate in an almighty crash around 2026 and the cycle will re-set. What goes up must come down.

With 2026** as the date in mind, if we assume things go down (quite literally) like they did in 2008 we can map out when not to buy:

To avoid negative equity, it looks to me that buying a house after the beginning of 2024 could be a risky move.

So to sum up:

• Brexit, stamp duty, the job retention scheme and politics in general are mostly just noise.
• It's hard to buy in a crash anyway.
• But maybe avoid buying after 2024.

*Regional variations exist. London for example, being a world class city seems to have had the explosive-growth first and may now experience the slower steady-growth phase.

**I wouldn't be surprised if the party went on longer than this but with the subsequent mother of all hangovers.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice, I'm just a guy who likes to potter about in the garden, so I could be totally wrong.

🏗️ The Cost Of Building Materials

Very much linked to the above is the rise in cost of building materials. No doubt this has been painful for many of you building garden rooms or tackling other DIY jobs. However, while it's a bit of a hassle and time-suck, it does pay to look about and source your various materials from different suppliers.

I've been constructing a couple of fences and was struck by the difference in prices for postcrete. The same bag of Blue Circle goes for £4.85 at Wickes but £7.78 at Travis Perkins.

I'm very much hoping for a return to normality next year in time for my second garden room build but I fear, akin to petrol prices, they've gone up like a rocket and will come down like a feather. Humph!

💝 The Kindness Of Strangers

When I started my YouTube channel, with practically no one but my mum watching I didn't really have any fears of what people might think or comment. In fact, I found shouting into the void rather freeing.

However as the views ticked upwards and my channel grew that fear began to creep in and I feel it to this day. However the experience has shown me that people, in their vast majority, are in fact incredibly nice and supportive.

Case (of beer) in point: a lovely chap called Tim recently sent me a box of Yorkshire-brewed ale. Lovely!

🎉 The End Of Lockdown

For now at least. The last couple of weeks have been pretty joyous. After the horrendous May weather that felt like it would never end, it feels so good to be catching up with friends and getting out in the sunshine.

My ultimate good time involves mates, beers on ice and the consequent befuddled garden badminton. As well as building materials, Calor gas for the BBQ seems to be in short supply too so I've been kicking it old-school with charcoal.

I have the privilege of conversing with many of you over email each day and know that the past year has presented challenges for some, so it's good to celebrate the good times. One thing that has come up time and again is how building a garden room has been a very welcome project to focus on during lockdown. Perhaps I should be an ambassador for mental health?

👏 Pretty good Ali, so how often can I expect this newsletter?

Annoyingly, with most things in life, if you want results you need to be consistent. That said, I'm not keen on creating content for content's sake so I suspect that these newsletters (I need to come up with a better name) will go out at the confluence of when I have something to say and when I feel like writing. Good enough?

Hit "reply" if you've got any comments on this week's newsletter – otherwise I'll see you next time. Have an epic week :)

P.s. If you think a friend will enjoy this newsletter, feel free to send them this link where they can sign up.